New York Rangers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-10-29 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 3 New York Rangers

Win Probability

WSH: 58.3%

NYR: 41.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.50

NYR: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	19	16	3	84.2%	2.48	0	-0.52
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	46	41	5	89.1%	6.90	9	1.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs NYR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	NYR
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	30	3	2.25
1	NYR	12	0	0.72
2	WSH	22	3	2.23
2	NYR	17	0	1.16
3	WSH	18	3	2.42
3	NYR	10	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 3 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1