Minnesota Wild at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-10-29 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 50.3%

MIN: 49.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.93

MIN: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

PIT

J. Blomqvist

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	J. Blomqvist	40	35	5	87.5%	3.14	1	-1.86
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	29	26	3	89.7%	2.00	1	-1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs MIN: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-21	PIT 0 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-10-30	MIN 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	MIN
2025-03-09	MIN 1 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-10-29	PIT 3 - 5 MIN	MIN	PIT
2024-02-09	MIN 3 - 2 PIT	MIN	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.44
1	MIN	20	0	0.81
2	PIT	14	0	0.70
2	MIN	15	0	1.12
3	PIT	12	1	0.85
3	MIN	20	1	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4