Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-10-30 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 51.0%

TBL: 49.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.04

TBL: 3.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

K. Kahkonen

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	K. Kahkonen	21	16	5	76.2%	2.95	3	-2.05
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	35	33	2	94.3%	3.01	0	1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	9	0	0.75
1	TBL	13	0	0.80
2	COL	20	0	1.30
2	TBL	15	2	1.00
3	COL	19	0	0.96
3	TBL	6	1	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.6