Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2024-10-30 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 53.1%
TBL: 46.9%
Expected Goals
COL: 2.83
TBL: 3.43
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | COL | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.902 | 0.924 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • COL at home vs TBL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | TBL 4 - 2 COL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-04 | COL 3 - 2 TBL | COL | COL |
| 2024-11-25 | TBL 8 - 2 COL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-10-30 | COL 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | COL |
| 2024-02-15 | TBL 6 - 3 COL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:01 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 03:36 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 05:32 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 14:56 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:28 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:57 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:40 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.8 - 3.4