Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2024-10-30 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 56.1%
TBL: 43.9%
Expected Goals
COL: 2.74
TBL: 3.70
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 72%
Over 6.5: 57%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 31-6-6 | 0.921 SV% | 2.02 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | COL | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.968 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.902 | 0.924 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • COL at home vs TBL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | TBL 4 - 2 COL | TBL | COL |
| 2025-11-04 | COL 3 - 2 TBL | COL | COL |
| 2024-11-25 | TBL 8 - 2 COL | TBL | COL |
| 2024-10-30 | COL 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | COL |
| 2024-02-15 | TBL 6 - 3 COL | TBL | COL |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.7 - 3.7
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