Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-11-01 • Nokia Arena

Dallas Stars 4 - 6 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 54.5%

FLA: 45.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.83

FLA: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	22	6	78.6%	2.32	2	-3.68
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	36	32	4	88.9%	3.57	4	-0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • DAL at home vs FLA: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	DAL 0 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-11-01	FLA 4 - 3 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-02	FLA 4 - 2 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-01	DAL 4 - 6 FLA	FLA	DAL
2024-03-12	DAL 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	1	0.92
1	FLA	16	0	0.89
2	DAL	18	1	1.29
2	FLA	15	1	0.95
3	DAL	20	2	1.37
3	FLA	7	1	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2