New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-11-01 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 51.1%

NYI: 48.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.24

NYI: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

BUF

D. Levi

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Levi	36	32	4	88.9%	3.92	4	-0.08
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	35	32	3	91.4%	3.52	2	0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs NYI: 7-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BUF 4 - 3 NYI	BUF	BUF
2026-01-24	NYI 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	NYI
2025-12-20	BUF 3 - 2 NYI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-23	NYI 1 - 7 BUF	BUF	NYI
2024-11-30	NYI 3 - 0 BUF	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	18	1	1.47
1	NYI	14	1	0.67
2	BUF	17	0	0.89
2	NYI	17	0	1.16
3	BUF	15	1	1.17
3	NYI	16	3	2.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9