New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-11-01 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 54.4%
NYI: 45.6%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.42
NYI: 3.07
Total Goals
Median: 6.9
Over 5.5: 72%
Over 6.5: 59%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
| Stat | BUF | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.851 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.967 | 0.906 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs NYI: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | BUF 4 - 3 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-01-24 | NYI 0 - 5 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2025-12-20 | BUF 3 - 2 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-23 | NYI 1 - 7 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2024-11-30 | NYI 3 - 0 BUF | NYI | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:03 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 09:43 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 05:25 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 12:20 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 05:27 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 08:08 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 18:59 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.4 - 3.1
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