Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2024-11-01 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 1 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 40.8%

OTT: 59.2%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.60

OTT: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	41	40	1	97.6%	3.56	2	2.56
OTT	Linus Ullmark	18	16	2	88.9%	1.93	1	-0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-23	NYR 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-14	NYR 4 - 8 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-04	OTT 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	OTT
2025-03-08	OTT 4 - 3 NYR	OTT	OTT
2025-01-21	NYR 5 - 0 OTT	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	0	0.59
1	OTT	15	1	0.87
2	NYR	6	0	0.28
2	OTT	25	0	1.33
3	NYR	9	1	1.06
3	OTT	24	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.6 - 2.9