New Jersey Devils at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-11-01 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 0 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 41.4%

NJD: 58.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.09

NJD: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	22	22	0	100.0%	1.97	0	1.97
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	32	29	3	90.6%	2.14	1	-0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • CGY at home vs NJD: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	NJD 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD
2026-01-19	CGY 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	CGY
2025-03-20	NJD 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD
2024-11-01	CGY 3 - 0 NJD	CGY	NJD
2024-02-08	NJD 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.51
1	NJD	6	0	0.46
2	CGY	17	0	0.73
2	NJD	12	0	0.84
3	CGY	10	1	0.90
3	NJD	11	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 0 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0