Dallas Stars at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2024-11-02 • Nokia Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

FLA: 54.9%

DAL: 45.1%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.35

DAL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Spencer Knight	25	23	2	92.0%	2.53	1	0.53
DAL	Casey DeSmith	25	21	4	84.0%	2.64	1	-1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • FLA at home vs DAL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	DAL 0 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-11-01	FLA 4 - 3 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-02	FLA 4 - 2 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-01	DAL 4 - 6 FLA	FLA	DAL
2024-03-12	DAL 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	10	0	0.72
1	DAL	14	0	1.10
2	FLA	8	0	0.63
2	DAL	14	1	1.09
3	FLA	14	1	1.29
3	DAL	13	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0