Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-11-02 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 55.9%

BOS: 44.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.20

BOS: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	31	28	3	90.3%	3.06	1	0.06
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	20	20	0	100.0%	1.76	1	1.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs BOS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PHI 2 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-02-28	PHI 3 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-01-29	BOS 6 - 3 PHI	BOS	PHI
2024-12-07	BOS 4 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-11-02	PHI 0 - 3 BOS	BOS	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	6	0	0.22
1	BOS	21	0	1.16
2	PHI	12	1	1.10
2	BOS	11	0	0.76
3	PHI	10	0	0.44
3	BOS	12	1	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9