Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-11-02 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

DET: 52.4%

BUF: 47.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.05

BUF: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 39%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	32	31	1	96.9%	3.08	3	2.08
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	23	21	2	91.3%	2.22	1	0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • DET at home vs BUF: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-27	BUF 2 - 5 DET	DET	BUF
2025-11-15	DET 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	DET
2025-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DET	BUF	BUF
2025-03-12	DET 7 - 3 BUF	DET	BUF
2024-12-09	BUF 5 - 6 DET	DET	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	0	0.49
1	BUF	15	1	1.12
2	DET	15	1	1.25
2	BUF	12	0	0.62
3	DET	13	0	0.48
3	BUF	24	2	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.0 - 2.6