Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-11-02 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

PIT: 63.9%

MTL: 36.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.92

MTL: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • PIT at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.34
1	MTL	7	0	0.24
2	PIT	20	0	1.11
2	MTL	13	0	0.74
3	PIT	7	1	0.95
3	MTL	14	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.9 - 2.9