Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2024-11-02 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 44.8%

TOR: 55.2%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.05

TOR: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	37	35	2	94.6%	3.61	3	1.61
TOR	Joseph Woll	24	20	4	83.3%	2.92	2	-1.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	STL 5 - 1 TOR	STL	STL
2025-11-18	TOR 3 - 2 STL	TOR	TOR
2024-11-02	STL 4 - 2 TOR	STL	TOR
2024-10-24	TOR 1 - 5 STL	STL	TOR
2024-02-19	STL 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	6	0	0.34
1	TOR	18	1	1.31
2	STL	18	1	1.45
2	TOR	11	1	0.92
3	STL	8	1	1.13
3	TOR	21	1	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4