Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2024-11-03 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 7 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

WPG: 60.1%

TBL: 39.9%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.50

TBL: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	30	26	4	86.7%	2.65	2	-1.35
TBL	Jonas Johansson	34	27	7	79.4%	4.39	3	-2.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • WPG at home vs TBL: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	WPG
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG
2024-01-02	WPG 4 - 2 TBL	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	15	0	0.97
1	TBL	14	2	1.33
2	WPG	14	0	0.76
2	TBL	8	0	0.46
3	WPG	16	3	2.67
3	TBL	19	0	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 7 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8