Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2024-11-03 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 51.3%
EDM: 48.7%
Expected Goals
CGY: 2.68
EDM: 3.08
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
| Stat | CGY | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.841 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.905 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • CGY at home vs EDM: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | CGY 4 - 3 EDM | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-12-27 | CGY 3 - 2 EDM | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-12-23 | EDM 5 - 1 CGY | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-10-08 | EDM 3 - 4 CGY | CGY | EDM |
| 2025-03-29 | EDM 3 - 2 CGY | EDM | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:20 | EDM | Goal |
| 1 | 08:12 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 04:33 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 04:28 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 10:10 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 19:57 | EDM | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 2.7 - 3.1