Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-11-03 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

CGY: 30.9%

EDM: 69.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.93

EDM: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	31	27	4	87.1%	2.86	2	-1.14
EDM	Stuart Skinner	31	29	2	93.5%	2.42	1	0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • CGY at home vs EDM: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	0.53
1	EDM	14	1	0.96
2	CGY	14	0	0.89
2	EDM	12	0	0.57
3	CGY	16	1	1.00
3	EDM	12	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4