Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-11-05 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 47.2%

OTT: 52.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.49

OTT: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	38	37	1	97.4%	3.41	1	2.41
OTT	Linus Ullmark	34	29	5	85.3%	3.70	1	-1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • BUF at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	20	0	1.10
1	OTT	20	0	0.85
2	BUF	14	0	1.13
2	OTT	18	1	1.85
3	BUF	12	1	1.46
3	OTT	17	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9