Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-11-05 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 50.3%

CGY: 49.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.65

CGY: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	35	32	3	91.4%	3.39	3	0.39
CGY	Dustin Wolf	24	22	2	91.7%	3.95	1	1.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs CGY: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	MTL 4 - 1 CGY	MTL	MTL
2025-10-22	CGY 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	CGY
2025-03-08	CGY 1 - 0 MTL	CGY	CGY
2024-11-05	MTL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	MTL
2024-03-16	CGY 5 - 2 MTL	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	28	1	2.45
1	CGY	12	0	0.75
2	MTL	11	0	0.45
2	CGY	20	1	1.11
3	MTL	8	0	1.05
3	CGY	20	2	1.47
4	MTL	0	0	0.00
4	CGY	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.6 - 3.2