Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-11-05 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

MTL: 42.7%

CGY: 57.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.17

CGY: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • MTL at home vs CGY: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	MTL 4 - 1 CGY	MTL	MTL
2025-10-22	CGY 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-08	CGY 1 - 0 MTL	CGY	CGY
2024-11-05	MTL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-03-16	CGY 5 - 2 MTL	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	28	1	2.45
1	CGY	12	0	0.75
2	MTL	11	0	0.45
2	CGY	20	1	1.11
3	MTL	8	0	1.05
3	CGY	20	2	1.47
4	MTL	0	0	0.00
4	CGY	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1