Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-11-05 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

NYI: 56.9%

PIT: 43.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.66

PIT: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	38	35	3	92.1%	3.22	1	0.22
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	29	25	4	86.2%	3.62	2	-0.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs PIT: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	NYI
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.64
1	PIT	18	0	0.65
2	NYI	15	0	0.70
2	PIT	19	0	1.40
3	NYI	16	1	0.95
3	PIT	10	1	0.70
4	NYI	3	0	0.30
4	PIT	4	0	0.25
5	NYI	3	1	1.03
5	PIT	3	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0