Columbus Blue Jackets at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2024-11-05 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 41.2%

CBJ: 58.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.88

CBJ: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

SJS

Vitek Vanecek - 17-9-3 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Vitek Vanecek	50	49	1	98.0%	4.30	3	3.30
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	27	25	2	92.6%	1.68	0	-0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • SJS at home vs CBJ: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CBJ 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	CBJ
2026-01-06	SJS 5 - 2 CBJ	SJS	CBJ
2025-01-16	CBJ 4 - 1 SJS	CBJ	CBJ
2024-11-05	SJS 2 - 1 CBJ	SJS	CBJ
2024-03-16	CBJ 4 - 2 SJS	CBJ	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	11	0	0.49
1	CBJ	20	0	1.12
2	SJS	16	0	0.63
2	CBJ	21	0	0.95
3	SJS	9	0	0.20
3	CBJ	25	2	1.91
4	SJS	3	0	0.35
4	CBJ	2	1	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0