Calgary Flames at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-11-07 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

BOS: 61.7%

CGY: 38.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.41

CGY: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 40%

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	37	34	3	91.9%	2.27	0	-0.73
CGY	Dustin Wolf	38	34	4	89.5%	3.28	1	-0.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	BOS 4 - 1 CGY	BOS	BOS
2025-12-29	CGY 2 - 1 BOS	CGY	CGY
2024-12-17	CGY 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	BOS
2024-11-07	BOS 4 - 3 CGY	BOS	BOS
2024-02-22	CGY 3 - 2 BOS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	12	0	0.59
1	CGY	14	0	0.91
2	BOS	18	1	1.81
2	CGY	17	0	0.57
3	BOS	12	0	0.49
3	CGY	11	0	0.36
4	BOS	6	0	0.39
4	CGY	5	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9