Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-11-07 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 50.3%
PHI: 49.7%
Expected Goals
TBL: 2.94
PHI: 2.66
Total Goals
Median: 3.9
Over 5.5: 30%
Over 6.5: 19%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
| Stat | TBL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.914 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.950 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs PHI: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | PHI 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-10 | PHI 2 - 7 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-24 | TBL 3 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-17 | TBL 2 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-13 | PHI 4 - 3 TBL | PHI | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:15 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:44 | TBL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TBL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 2.9 - 2.7
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