Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2024-11-07 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 54.0%

BUF: 46.0%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.30

BUF: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	22	16	6	72.7%	2.03	1	-3.97
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	26	25	1	96.2%	3.10	3	2.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYR at home vs BUF: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	NYR 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-08	NYR 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-09	BUF 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-22	BUF 8 - 2 NYR	BUF	NYR
2024-12-11	BUF 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	1	0.96
1	BUF	7	0	0.55
2	NYR	15	0	0.84
2	BUF	11	0	0.78
3	NYR	16	2	1.30
3	BUF	9	1	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2