Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-11-07 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

DAL: 81.0%

CHI: 19.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.83

CHI: 2.33

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	26	25	1	96.2%	2.18	2	1.18
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	40	37	3	92.5%	4.75	7	1.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DAL at home vs CHI: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	DAL 4 - 3 CHI	DAL	DAL
2026-01-01	CHI 4 - 3 DAL	CHI	CHI
2025-12-27	DAL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	DAL
2024-12-29	CHI 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-27	CHI 6 - 2 DAL	CHI	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	21	1	1.50
1	CHI	6	0	0.34
2	DAL	20	3	2.03
2	CHI	10	2	1.06
3	DAL	12	3	1.22
3	CHI	17	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 81.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.8 - 2.3