Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-11-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

TOR: 62.0%

DET: 38.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.84

DET: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 40%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	22	21	1	95.5%	2.60	3	1.60
DET	Cam Talbot	20	17	3	85.0%	2.38	3	-0.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TOR at home vs DET: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	TOR
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	2	1.03
1	DET	12	1	0.85
2	TOR	9	0	0.66
2	DET	9	0	0.48
3	TOR	8	1	0.68
3	DET	13	2	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.8 - 2.7