Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-11-08 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 61.4%

PIT: 38.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.07

PIT: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

PIT

J. Blomqvist

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	32	28	4	87.5%	4.18	4	0.18
PIT	J. Blomqvist	34	32	2	94.1%	4.05	5	2.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • WSH at home vs PIT: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-07	WSH 5 - 3 PIT	WSH	PIT
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	1	0.95
1	PIT	16	1	1.16
2	WSH	24	3	2.39
2	PIT	15	0	0.64
3	WSH	10	1	0.70
3	PIT	14	3	2.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0