Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-11-08 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 57.5%

PIT: 42.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.16

PIT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • WSH at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	1	0.95
1	PIT	16	1	1.16
2	WSH	24	3	2.39
2	PIT	15	0	0.64
3	WSH	10	1	0.70
3	PIT	14	3	2.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1