Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2024-11-08 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 54.7%
PIT: 45.3%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.63
PIT: 2.82
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | WSH | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.914 | 0.848 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • WSH at home vs PIT: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | WSH 3 - 0 PIT | WSH | PIT |
| 2026-04-11 | PIT 3 - 6 WSH | WSH | PIT |
| 2025-11-06 | PIT 5 - 3 WSH | PIT | WSH |
| 2025-04-17 | PIT 5 - 2 WSH | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-02-22 | PIT 3 - 8 WSH | WSH | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:11 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 06:59 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 08:22 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 06:04 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 10:28 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:37 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.6 - 2.8
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