Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-11-09 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

BUF: 52.1%

CGY: 47.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.21

CGY: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 40%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	29	27	2	93.1%	2.35	0	0.35
CGY	Dan Vladar	21	18	3	85.7%	3.30	3	0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BUF at home vs CGY: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-08	CGY 7 - 4 BUF	CGY	CGY
2025-11-19	BUF 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	BUF
2025-01-23	CGY 5 - 2 BUF	CGY	CGY
2024-11-09	BUF 3 - 2 CGY	BUF	BUF
2024-03-24	CGY 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	1	0.94
1	CGY	9	0	0.09
2	BUF	13	1	1.33
2	CGY	15	0	0.83
3	BUF	7	0	0.26
3	CGY	14	0	0.89
4	BUF	3	0	0.15
4	CGY	4	0	0.30
5	BUF	3	1	0.62
5	CGY	3	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1