Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-11-09 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

BOS: 37.6%

OTT: 62.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.09

OTT: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	34	31	3	91.2%	2.98	1	-0.02
OTT	Linus Ullmark	16	14	2	87.5%	1.67	2	-0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • BOS at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	9	1	0.59
1	OTT	15	1	0.95
2	BOS	9	1	0.77
2	OTT	14	0	0.94
3	BOS	4	0	0.15
3	OTT	17	0	0.85
4	BOS	1	0	0.15
4	OTT	2	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3