Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-11-09 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

TOR: 66.3%

MTL: 33.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.99

MTL: 2.30

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	21	20	1	95.2%	2.22	1	1.22
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	27	23	4	85.2%	2.56	0	-1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TOR at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TOR
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.52
1	MTL	9	0	0.45
2	TOR	14	0	1.55
2	MTL	12	1	1.16
3	TOR	9	0	0.49
3	MTL	14	0	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.0 - 2.3