Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-11-09 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 70.6%
MTL: 29.4%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.93
MTL: 2.12
Total Goals
Median: 5.3
Over 5.5: 41%
Over 6.5: 28%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | TOR | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.895 | 0.940 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs MTL: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | MTL 3 - 1 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-12-06 | TOR 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-11-22 | MTL 5 - 2 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-08 | TOR 5 - 2 MTL | TOR | MTL |
| 2025-04-12 | TOR 1 - 0 MTL | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:55 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 05:39 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 08:24 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 09:26 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 12:15 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 70.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.9 - 2.1
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.