Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2024-11-09 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 1 - 8 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 51.5%

WSH: 48.5%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.86

WSH: 4.60

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	27	19	8	70.4%	3.11	2	-4.89
WSH	Logan Thompson	25	24	1	96.0%	2.17	1	1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs WSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL
2025-11-05	WSH 6 - 1 STL	WSH	WSH
2025-02-27	WSH 2 - 5 STL	STL	WSH
2024-11-09	STL 1 - 8 WSH	WSH	STL
2024-01-20	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	14	0	1.04
1	WSH	13	0	0.36
2	STL	13	0	0.63
2	WSH	10	0	0.63
3	STL	8	1	0.50
3	WSH	20	2	2.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.5

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 1 - 8 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 4.6