New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-11-09 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 51.0%

NJD: 49.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.29

NJD: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	33	29	4	87.9%	3.50	2	-0.50
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	22	19	3	86.4%	2.47	0	-0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYI at home vs NJD: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	NJD 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NJD
2026-01-06	NYI 9 - 0 NJD	NYI	NYI
2025-12-23	NYI 2 - 1 NJD	NYI	NYI
2025-11-10	NJD 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NJD
2025-04-13	NJD 0 - 1 NYI	NYI	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	9	0	0.51
1	NJD	17	0	0.68
2	NYI	13	0	0.81
2	NJD	15	1	1.40
3	NYI	12	0	0.83
3	NJD	13	1	1.13
4	NYI	3	0	0.31
4	NJD	3	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0