Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2024-11-11 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 7 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 56.0%
DAL: 44.0%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.21
DAL: 3.05
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | PIT | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.800 | 0.931 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • PIT at home vs DAL: 0-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | DAL 3 - 2 PIT | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-04-05 | DAL 3 - 5 PIT | PIT | DAL |
| 2024-11-11 | PIT 1 - 7 DAL | DAL | PIT |
| 2024-03-22 | DAL 4 - 2 PIT | DAL | DAL |
| 2023-10-24 | PIT 1 - 4 DAL | DAL | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:33 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 07:13 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 10:16 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 13:09 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 14:37 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 18:39 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:03 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:10 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 7 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0