Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-11-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 7 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 53.0%

DAL: 47.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.14

DAL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

PIT

J. Blomqvist

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	J. Blomqvist	40	33	7	82.5%	3.96	1	-3.04
DAL	Jake Oettinger	21	20	1	95.2%	2.03	1	1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PIT at home vs DAL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	PIT
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	PIT
2024-03-22	DAL 4 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.44
1	DAL	15	1	1.17
2	PIT	10	0	0.87
2	DAL	12	0	0.90
3	PIT	9	1	0.72
3	DAL	24	0	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 7 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2