Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2024-11-11 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 7 Dallas Stars
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 49.1%
DAL: 50.9%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.06
DAL: 3.15
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
J. Blomqvist
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA
| Stat | PIT | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | J. Blomqvist | 40 | 33 | 7 | 82.5% | 3.96 | 1 | -3.04 |
| DAL | Jake Oettinger | 21 | 20 | 1 | 95.2% | 2.03 | 1 | 1.03 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • PIT at home vs DAL: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | PIT 2 - 1 DAL | PIT | DAL |
| 2026-03-28 | PIT 3 - 6 DAL | DAL | PIT |
| 2025-12-07 | DAL 3 - 2 PIT | DAL | PIT |
| 2025-04-05 | DAL 3 - 5 PIT | PIT | DAL |
| 2024-11-11 | PIT 1 - 7 DAL | DAL | DAL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 10 | 0 | 0.44 |
| 1 | DAL | 15 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 2 | PIT | 10 | 0 | 0.87 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 0 | 0.90 |
| 3 | PIT | 9 | 1 | 0.72 |
| 3 | DAL | 24 | 0 | 1.89 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 50.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 7 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.1 - 3.2
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