Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-11-11 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 47.9%

LAK: 52.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.95

LAK: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	28	1	96.6%	2.30	2	1.30
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	28	25	3	89.3%	3.42	2	0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • CGY at home vs LAK: 6-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	CGY 3 - 1 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-03-24	CGY 3 - 2 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-02-28	LAK 2 - 0 CGY	LAK	LAK
2025-12-13	LAK 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	LAK
2025-04-17	LAK 1 - 5 CGY	CGY	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	16	0	1.01
1	LAK	10	0	0.48
2	CGY	17	0	1.10
2	LAK	18	1	0.89
3	CGY	8	2	1.31
3	LAK	15	1	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1