Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-11-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

PIT: 48.0%

DET: 52.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.05

DET: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	31	28	3	90.3%	1.96	2	-1.04
DET	Cam Talbot	33	31	2	93.9%	3.07	0	1.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	0	0.89
1	DET	18	1	0.95
2	PIT	17	0	0.63
2	DET	14	1	0.70
3	PIT	20	0	1.38
3	DET	7	0	0.17
4	PIT	1	0	0.17
4	DET	1	0	0.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2