Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-11-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 58.5%

DET: 41.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.15

DET: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	0	0.89
1	DET	18	1	0.95
2	PIT	17	0	0.63
2	DET	14	1	0.70
3	PIT	20	0	1.38
3	DET	7	0	0.17
4	PIT	1	0	0.17
4	DET	1	0	0.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0