Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2024-11-13 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 58.9%
TOR: 41.1%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.38
TOR: 2.86
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | WSH | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.970 | 0.880 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • WSH at home vs TOR: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | TOR 0 - 4 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-12-18 | WSH 4 - 0 TOR | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-28 | WSH 4 - 2 TOR | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-12-28 | TOR 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-12-06 | TOR 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:12 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 12:11 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 18:33 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 17:48 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 15:51 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 19:12 | WSH | Goal |
| 4 | 04:13 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.4 - 2.9
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