Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-11-14 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 53.6%
WPG: 46.4%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.29
WPG: 2.69
Total Goals
Median: 5.5
Over 5.5: 51%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 23-23-11 | 0.895 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | TBL | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.867 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.925 | 0.937 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • TBL at home vs WPG: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | WPG 4 - 1 TBL | WPG | WPG |
| 2026-01-29 | TBL 4 - 1 WPG | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-11-14 | TBL 4 - 1 WPG | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-11-03 | WPG 7 - 4 TBL | WPG | WPG |
| 2024-01-02 | WPG 4 - 2 TBL | WPG | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:24 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:10 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:07 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:54 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:39 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.3 - 2.7
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.