Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2024-11-15 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 51.3%
WSH: 48.7%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.14
WSH: 4.05
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 75%
Over 6.5: 58%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | COL | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.917 | — |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • COL at home vs WSH: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | COL 5 - 2 WSH | COL | COL |
| 2024-11-21 | WSH 1 - 2 COL | COL | WSH |
| 2024-11-15 | COL 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | COL |
| 2024-02-13 | WSH 3 - 6 COL | COL | WSH |
| 2024-01-24 | COL 6 - 2 WSH | COL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:00 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 04:25 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 07:48 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 01:53 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 04:03 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 09:21 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 19:57 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 7.2
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.1 - 4.1