Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-11-15 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 59.9%

WSH: 40.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.90

WSH: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

COL

Justus Annunen - 8-4-1 | 0.928 SV% | 2.25 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Justus Annunen	20	15	5	75.0%	2.72	2	-2.28
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	19	17	2	89.5%	1.85	1	-0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • COL at home vs WSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	WSH 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-19	COL 5 - 2 WSH	COL	COL
2024-11-21	WSH 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-11-15	COL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	COL
2024-02-13	WSH 3 - 6 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	0	0.61
1	WSH	10	0	0.59
2	COL	14	1	0.62
2	WSH	9	0	0.45
3	COL	12	0	0.61
3	WSH	12	2	1.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.9 - 2.5