Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-11-16 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 1 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

MTL: 55.5%

CBJ: 44.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.19

CBJ: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

CBJ

Daniil Tarasov - 8-11-3 | 0.908 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	26	25	1	96.2%	1.50	0	0.50
CBJ	Daniil Tarasov	30	25	5	83.3%	2.33	0	-2.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs CBJ: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	MTL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	MTL
2026-03-26	MTL 2 - 1 CBJ	MTL	MTL
2025-11-17	CBJ 4 - 3 MTL	CBJ	CBJ
2024-12-23	CBJ 5 - 4 MTL	CBJ	CBJ
2024-11-27	CBJ 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	MTL	19	1.15
1	CBJ	14	0.47
2	MTL	6	0.61
2	CBJ	12	0.71
3	MTL	10	0.56
3	CBJ	10	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 1 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2