New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-16 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 0 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

TBL: 55.6%

NJD: 44.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.28

NJD: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	29	0	100.0%	2.21	1	2.21
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	27	23	4	85.2%	3.40	1	-0.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs NJD: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	TBL
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	0	0.78
1	NJD	8	0	0.22
2	TBL	17	0	0.90
2	NJD	17	0	0.97
3	TBL	12	1	1.72
3	NJD	15	1	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 0 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2