New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-16 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 0 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

TBL: 57.5%

NJD: 42.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.23

NJD: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TBL at home vs NJD: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	0	0.78
1	NJD	8	0	0.22
2	TBL	17	0	0.90
2	NJD	17	0	0.97
3	TBL	12	1	1.72
3	NJD	15	1	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 0 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1