Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-11-17 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 52.4%

WSH: 47.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.01

WSH: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	25	20	5	80.0%	2.84	2	-2.16
WSH	Logan Thompson	42	40	2	95.2%	4.24	4	2.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VGK at home vs WSH: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	VGK 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2026-02-27	WSH 3 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2024-11-17	VGK 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2024-10-15	WSH 4 - 2 VGK	WSH	WSH
2023-12-02	VGK 4 - 1 WSH	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	1	0.74
1	WSH	18	0	0.42
2	VGK	20	0	1.02
2	WSH	15	0	0.72
3	VGK	31	3	2.48
3	WSH	12	2	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0