Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2024-11-17 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 51.7%
WSH: 48.3%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.04
WSH: 4.14
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 73%
Over 6.5: 58%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | VGK | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • VGK at home vs WSH: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | VGK 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | VGK |
| 2024-10-15 | WSH 4 - 2 VGK | WSH | WSH |
| 2023-12-02 | VGK 4 - 1 WSH | VGK | VGK |
| 2023-11-14 | WSH 3 - 0 VGK | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:59 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 12:26 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 19:52 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 02:49 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 07:24 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 17:38 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 19:23 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 7.2
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.0 - 4.1