Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-11-18 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

PHI: 42.2%

COL: 57.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.81

COL: 3.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

PHI

Aleksei Kolosov - 5-9-1 | 0.867 SV% | 3.59 GAA

COL

Justus Annunen - 8-4-1 | 0.928 SV% | 2.25 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Aleksei Kolosov	29	26	3	89.7%	3.14	2	0.14
COL	Justus Annunen	26	24	2	92.3%	2.46	2	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	COL 3 - 7 PHI	PHI	COL
2025-12-07	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-02	COL 2 - 0 PHI	COL	PHI
2024-11-18	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2024-01-20	PHI 4 - 7 COL	COL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	9	1	0.71
1	COL	19	1	1.18
2	PHI	11	0	0.50
2	COL	9	0	0.67
3	PHI	18	1	1.25
3	COL	13	1	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.8 - 3.5