Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2024-11-18 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 54.4%
COL: 45.6%
Expected Goals
PHI: 2.59
COL: 2.94
Total Goals
Median: 5.5
Over 5.5: 50%
Over 6.5: 34%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | PHI | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • PHI at home vs COL: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | COL 3 - 7 PHI | PHI | COL |
| 2025-12-07 | PHI 2 - 3 COL | COL | PHI |
| 2025-02-02 | COL 2 - 0 PHI | COL | COL |
| 2024-11-18 | PHI 2 - 3 COL | COL | PHI |
| 2024-01-20 | PHI 4 - 7 COL | COL | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 08:30 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:08 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:34 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:48 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:32 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 2.6 - 2.9