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Edmonton Oilers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-11-18 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 0 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability
MTL: 38.3%
EDM: 61.7%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.74
EDM: 3.16
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
StatMTLEDM
Season SV%0.8890.906
Last 5 SV%0.8910.837
SV% vs Opponent0.9640.862
GAA3.012.73
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • MTL at home vs EDM: 2-1
DateScoreWinnerModel Pick
2025-12-14MTL 4 - 1 EDMMTLMTL
2025-10-23EDM 6 - 5 MTLEDMEDM
2025-03-06EDM 3 - 2 MTLEDMEDM
2024-11-18MTL 3 - 0 EDMMTLEDM
2024-03-19EDM 3 - 2 MTLEDMEDM

⚡ In-Game Win Probability

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0:00 20:00 40:00 60:00 In-Game Win Probability Home Win Probability Game Time (minutes)

Goals

PeriodTimeTeamScorer
219:29MTLGoal
305:52MTLGoal
316:52MTLGoal

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 0 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 2.7 - 3.2