Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2024-11-18 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 5 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 44.5%

DET: 55.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.97

DET: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

SJS

Mackenzie Blackwood - 10-25-4 | 0.899 SV% | 3.45 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Mackenzie Blackwood	21	17	4	81.0%	3.19	4	-0.81
DET	Cam Talbot	34	29	5	85.3%	3.60	3	-1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 30% • SJS at home vs DET: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	DET 4 - 2 SJS	DET	DET
2025-11-02	SJS 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-01-14	DET 3 - 6 SJS	SJS	DET
2024-11-18	SJS 5 - 4 DET	SJS	DET
2024-01-02	SJS 3 - 5 DET	DET	SJS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	20	2	1.40
1	DET	13	2	1.16
2	SJS	17	1	1.20
2	DET	11	2	1.55
3	SJS	15	0	0.90
3	DET	6	0	0.33
4	SJS	1	0	0.11
4	DET	1	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 5 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5