Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-11-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

TOR: 54.6%

VGK: 45.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.14

VGK: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	31	31	0	100.0%	2.16	0	2.16
VGK	Adin Hill	26	23	3	88.5%	3.78	4	0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	TOR
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	0.86
1	VGK	14	0	0.52
2	TOR	9	1	0.65
2	VGK	18	0	0.98
3	TOR	21	2	2.28
3	VGK	11	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4