Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-11-21 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 62.5%

VGK: 37.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.25

VGK: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	32	29	3	90.6%	4.75	6	1.75
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	40	38	2	95.0%	3.24	3	1.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	OTT 7 - 1 VGK	OTT	VGK
2025-11-26	VGK 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	VGK
2024-11-21	OTT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	OTT
2024-10-25	VGK 6 - 4 OTT	VGK	VGK
2024-02-24	OTT 4 - 3 VGK	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	19	0	0.71
1	VGK	18	2	1.32
2	OTT	8	3	1.19
2	VGK	16	2	1.82
3	OTT	25	0	1.34
3	VGK	9	2	1.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0