Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2024-11-21 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 60.3%
VGK: 39.7%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.19
VGK: 2.78
Total Goals
Median: 5.1
Over 5.5: 47%
Over 6.5: 29%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | OTT | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.914 | 0.864 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs VGK: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | OTT 7 - 1 VGK | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-11-26 | VGK 3 - 4 OTT | OTT | VGK |
| 2024-11-21 | OTT 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | OTT |
| 2024-10-25 | VGK 6 - 4 OTT | VGK | OTT |
| 2024-02-24 | OTT 4 - 3 VGK | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:45 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 10:51 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 07:17 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 09:17 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 12:38 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.2 - 2.8
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