Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-11-21 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

WSH: 36.9%

COL: 63.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.26

COL: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	27	25	2	92.6%	3.93	3	1.93
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	29	28	1	96.6%	3.50	2	2.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • WSH at home vs COL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	WSH 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-19	COL 5 - 2 WSH	COL	COL
2024-11-21	WSH 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-11-15	COL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	COL
2024-02-13	WSH 3 - 6 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	0	1.06
1	COL	8	1	0.83
2	WSH	5	0	0.44
2	COL	17	0	1.21
3	WSH	22	2	1.99
3	COL	15	2	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1