New York Rangers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-11-21 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 New York Rangers

Win Probability

CGY: 57.3%

NYR: 42.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.72

NYR: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 43%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	27	2	93.1%	2.10	1	0.10
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	49	46	3	93.9%	4.92	4	1.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • CGY at home vs NYR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	NYR 4 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR
2025-10-26	CGY 5 - 1 NYR	CGY	CGY
2025-03-18	NYR 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	NYR
2024-11-21	CGY 3 - 2 NYR	CGY	CGY
2024-02-12	NYR 2 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	27	1	1.31
1	NYR	7	0	0.33
2	CGY	24	0	1.23
2	NYR	18	0	1.03
3	CGY	19	3	2.38
3	NYR	12	1	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.7 - 2.9