Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-11-21 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 59.9%

MIN: 40.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.64

MIN: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	26	21	5	80.8%	2.52	2	-2.48
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	31	28	3	90.3%	2.25	1	-0.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • EDM at home vs MIN: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	EDM 3 - 7 MIN	MIN	EDM
2025-12-20	MIN 5 - 2 EDM	MIN	EDM
2025-12-02	EDM 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	EDM
2025-01-15	MIN 3 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-12	MIN 1 - 7 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	8	0	0.37
1	MIN	13	0	0.83
2	EDM	16	0	0.48
2	MIN	15	1	0.98
3	EDM	16	1	1.39
3	MIN	8	1	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8