Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-11-22 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 52.0%

WPG: 48.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.30

WPG: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	30	26	4	86.7%	4.71	3	0.71
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	18	17	1	94.4%	1.82	0	0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • PIT at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	PIT 5 - 4 WPG	PIT	PIT
2025-11-01	WPG 5 - 2 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-11-22	PIT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PIT
2024-10-20	WPG 6 - 3 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-02-10	WPG 2 - 1 PIT	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	0.86
1	WPG	17	1	1.56
2	PIT	7	0	0.23
2	WPG	18	0	1.11
3	PIT	14	0	0.72
3	WPG	12	2	2.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0