Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2024-11-22 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 59.6%
WPG: 40.4%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.36
WPG: 3.01
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | PIT | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.905 | — |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • PIT at home vs WPG: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | WPG 5 - 2 PIT | WPG | WPG |
| 2024-11-22 | PIT 1 - 4 WPG | WPG | PIT |
| 2024-10-20 | WPG 6 - 3 PIT | WPG | WPG |
| 2024-02-10 | WPG 2 - 1 PIT | WPG | WPG |
| 2024-02-06 | PIT 3 - 0 WPG | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:22 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 19:01 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 04:53 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 18:49 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 05:49 | WPG | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.4 - 3.0