Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-11-23 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

CGY: 55.3%

MIN: 44.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.39

MIN: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 37%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	27	23	4	85.2%	3.86	2	-0.14
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	35	30	5	85.7%	4.23	3	-0.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CGY at home vs MIN: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MIN 4 - 1 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-12-04	CGY 4 - 1 MIN	CGY	MIN
2025-11-09	MIN 2 - 0 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-04-11	CGY 4 - 2 MIN	CGY	CGY
2025-01-25	MIN 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.49
1	MIN	12	0	0.61
2	CGY	18	1	1.12
2	MIN	7	0	0.33
3	CGY	16	0	0.69
3	MIN	22	1	1.29
4	CGY	4	0	0.40
4	MIN	3	0	0.33
5	CGY	5	2	1.53
5	MIN	5	1	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0