Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2024-11-23 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 58.6%
VGK: 41.4%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.11
VGK: 3.03
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | MTL | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.941 | 0.864 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs VGK: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | MTL 3 - 2 VGK | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-11-28 | VGK 1 - 4 MTL | MTL | VGK |
| 2024-12-31 | VGK 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | VGK |
| 2024-11-23 | MTL 2 - 6 VGK | VGK | MTL |
| 2023-11-16 | MTL 5 - 6 VGK | VGK | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 17:02 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 10:35 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 09:09 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 08:18 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 04:39 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 18:12 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 13:03 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 02:03 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.1 - 3.0