Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-11-23 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 2 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 54.0%

BOS: 46.0%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.31

BOS: 2.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	29	27	2	93.1%	2.15	1	0.15
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	20	19	1	95.0%	2.00	1	1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DET at home vs BOS: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	DET 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	DET
2026-01-13	BOS 3 - 0 DET	BOS	BOS
2025-12-02	DET 5 - 4 BOS	DET	DET
2025-11-29	BOS 3 - 2 DET	BOS	BOS
2025-03-29	DET 2 - 1 BOS	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	12	0	0.70
1	BOS	8	0	0.59
2	DET	12	0	0.59
2	BOS	16	0	0.68
3	DET	9	1	0.72
3	BOS	17	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 2 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6